Uh Oh, U.S. Democracy

Experts gamed out multiple scenarios where the current administration doesn't let go of its grip on power after the election in November. It's scary.

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Screenshot of the game Orwell, by Osmotic Studios.

The Simulation That Should Terrify Us

Under the leadership of Georgetown Law Professor Rosa Brooks, a large group of about 80 experts in law and national security, as well former military, senior members of both the Republican and the Democratic parties, and members of the media, amongst many others, got together to… Play a game. A war game. With a 10-sided die. Like some sort of Very Serious and Very Important Dungeons & Dragons campaign. The group is known as the Transition Integrity Project.

Before you laugh, this is done quite often in the military and national security circles. The idea is to come up with various scenarios so we can be prepared for as many outcomes as possible.

They explored what would happen if the Trump administration decided to challenge the validity of the election results. They acted it out and it invariably turned ugly. This is Brooks, interviewed on NPR:

What if this happens? Who does what next? And have them really walk through that and see what happened if you had a group of people who were willing to play fast and loose with the rules was really shocking. I think it really shook people's faith in the notion that the system won't let someone try to manipulate or steal the election.

Max Boot, a conservative Never-Trumper, played on Team Trump. He wrote about it for the Washington Post:

In our scenario, there was no congressional commission. Instead, the Republican Party bombarded the airwaves with claims of electoral fraud and insisted that Trump had been cheated of victory. The GOP filed suit to prevent the certification of the results. Attorney General William P. Barr, who in real life is already making specious claims about mail-in voter fraud, supported this effort in our mock exercise by claiming to have detected efforts by Chinese intelligence, Antifa terrorists and other enemies of the people to steal the election. The goal was to tie up the proceedings in the courts, initially at the state level, and quickly force the Republican-dominated Supreme Court to intervene.

Brooks and one of the participants, Retired U.S. Army Colonel and former Chief of Staff for Colin Powell Lawrence Wilkerson, talked more extensively to Meghna Chakrabarti about it.

How to use this: this underscores that the November election is the most important of the history of the United States. It is less than 100 days away now. If you’re in the U.S. and able pitch in, please treat it as the top priority. There are lots to do. Pick one thing or pick four, but help. Here’s a (non-exhaustive) list:

• Join efforts to register people to vote.

• Identify, as early as you can, how to get your mail-in/absentee ballot (they are basically the same thing right now). Set reminders for when you can request it.

• Help your elderly neighbours do the same, but also the people under 35 years old. More than half of them say they don’t have the resources or the knowledge to vote by mail, according to a recent poll. Share info about this now, and don’t stop until October.

• Plan to send your ballot in by early October at the latest.

• Expect that the U.S. Mail will slow down. Make a plan to drop your ballot in person. Find out where and how. Help your neighbours do the same (or if allowed, take your neighbours’ ballots with you).

• If you’re under 45, consider being a poll worker. The average poll worker is 60 years old, and Covid-19 is a big risk to them. You can help keep polling stations open if you volunteer.

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Covid-19 Interlude

1. Cover your eyes, too.

In an interview with ABC News, Anthony “The Nation’s Family Physician” Fauci recommended that we wear goggles or face shields, on top of masks, for complete protection:

"You have mucosa in the nose, mucosa in the mouth, but you also have mucosa in the eye," he said. "Theoretically, you should protect all the mucosal surfaces. So if you have goggles or an eye shield you should use it."

How to use this: you heard the man. If you can, cover your eyes. Especially if you’re in a hotspot.

2. Face shields alone aren’t great, though.

Again, Fauci recommends shields ON TOP OF MASKS. It’s not an either/or proposition. A situation in Switzerland showed that on their own, face shields weren’t super protective:

A health department in Switzerland is now warning against wearing plastic face shields without a mask after a recent outbreak in which those wearing only shields were infected with coronavirus, while people wearing masks were fine. 

How to use this: it’s a great reminder that no single measure is enough. You’re safest outside. If you’re inside with other people and can open all the windows, do. Also, you’re safest if both eyes, nose, and mouth are covered. Always keep your distance. Don’t extend visits with others beyond 15 minutes.

3. Disinfecting everything is “hygiene theatre”

We’ve known for a while that surface contact is not a huge driver for contagion. You do need to wash your hands well, but know that it’s a bit of a waste of (otherwise sorely needed) resources to disinfect everything thoroughly:

Hygiene theater can take limited resources away from more important goals. Goldman shared with me an email he had received from a New Jersey teacher after his Lancet article came out. She said her local schools had considered shutting one day each week for “deep cleaning.” At a time when returning to school will require herculean efforts from teachers and extraordinary ingenuity from administrators to keep kids safely distanced, setting aside entire days to clean surfaces would be a pitiful waste of time and scarce local tax revenue.

How to use this: lots of school districts are swearing up and down that they’ll disinfect schools weekly or even daily in an effort to reopen. That probably won’t do much. Cut them off when they start going on about this and demand that they use money and energy on measures that actually do make a huge difference (see above).

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For Inspiration

As overwhelming as everything is, we can’t afford to despair right now. This is Rabbi David Wolpe, of Sinai Temple in Los Angeles, in conversation with Sean Illing, of Vox, about how we get through this:

“Faith is not to allow the fear or the loneliness or the despair to be the final word.”

How to use this: do not let fear and despondency paralyse you. There’s plenty to do. Listen, breathe, reach out, vent, breathe again. And then take action.

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